Election ratings and forecasts

Presidential election polls seem to be all over the place this year, swinging one way or the other for who knows what reason.  Some analysts recently predicted that the polls may be more trustworthy after Labor Day (Sep. 5), but do they really know?

So I thought I would publish a list of links (below) of various ratings and forecast sites that use statistics or other means to try and get a more robust picture of the election race than a single or a few polls might paint.  Please note that this list is not complete, nor is it in any particular order.

Think you know better?  The American Statistical Association (ASA) is holding a contest to predict the next U.S. president.  It’s not as easy as just determining the winner, though.  Your statistical model really has to get the details right.

But whether you think your model or one of the existing models — statistical, betting odds, experts, crystal ball, or otherwise — is best, take a look at the BBC video below.  Models that may have gotten election prediction right in the past, don’t seem to agree this year.  At least not yet.



Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map

The Cook Political Report



CNN Political Prediction market

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